Large Language Models Polarize Ideologically but Moderate Affectively in Online Political Discourse

Society, culture, and collective behavior2026arXivApproved editorial review

Authors: Gavin Wang, Srinaath Anbudurai, Oliver Sun, Xitong Li, Lynn Wu

Keywords: General Economics

Source: Open primary source (opens in a new tab)

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Authors
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Findings
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Limitations
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Evidence

Editorial summary

English

This preprint examines whether political discourse in r/politics changed around ChatGPT's public launch on November 30, 2022. It separates ideological polarization, movement away from a neutral point in language, from affective polarization, hostility and toxicity, and proposes a dual result: after launch, language from initially liberal and conservative authors moved modestly away from the center, while hostility scores in particular declined. The distinction between ideological content and tone is the paper's main contribution; its central limitation is that it observes a date and linguistic proxies, not actual ChatGPT use by each author or for each comment.

The declared dataset contains 6,882,091 posts and comments from 334,002 authors. It covers three months before and after launch and compares that window with the same calendar months one year earlier in a difference-in-differences design. To reduce entry effects, the sample retains people who commented at least once between June and December 2021. Main regressions use comment observations, author fixed effects, and author-clustered errors; author-day results are also shown and author-month analyses are cited. The PDF displays a six-week event study on each side and claims shifted-date placebos, but full results sit in an unavailable supplement.

Political orientation is estimated with a bag-of-words dictionary derived from the 2021 Congressional Record. Each comment receives a score from -1 to 1: negative is interpreted as liberal, positive as conservative, and zero as neutral. Authors are 59.4% neutral, 15.7% liberal, and 24.9% conservative; by comments the shares are 17.9%, 31.6%, and 50.5%. The dictionary, coefficients, and validation for Reddit language are absent from the public artifact. The score therefore measures vocabulary associated with congressional speakers and topics, not political belief, partisan identity, or behavior directly.

At comment level, the post-November-by-treated interaction is -0.0030 for liberal authors, -0.0003 for neutral authors, and +0.0026 for conservative authors. At author-day level it is -0.0038, -0.0004, and +0.0033. The authors interpret the opposite signs as greater polarization and state that the change moves a median comment toward the most extreme 30%, an equivalence deferred to an unavailable supplementary figure. Groups nearest the center show small or nonsignificant movement. These estimates document a temporal association under the paper's metric; by themselves they do not isolate ChatGPT from news, composition, moderation, platform changes, or other concurrent shocks.

To study who drives the change, the paper labels the top 10% by selection-period comment count, 20 or more, as active and everyone else inactive. After launch, the so-called inactive group writes roughly 2.9-3.1 more words per comment, shows a larger fall in log perplexity, and falls by about 0.01 in Human Score. Its slant movement is also larger: -0.0082 for liberals and +0.0072 for conservatives, compared with -0.0022 and +0.0019 among active users. These are linguistic changes compatible with generative assistance, but length, perplexity, and a classifier do not observe which tool was used. Calling roughly 90% of the distribution inactive also combines highly heterogeneous behavior.

The sycophancy mechanism depends on classifying individual comments as human or ChatGPT. The paper calls Human Score an OpenAI ChatGPT detector and labels scores below 30% human as ChatGPT. Its reference 22, however, is Solaiman et al. (2019): the RoBERTa GPT-2 output detector trained to distinguish WebText from GPT-2 1.5B generations before ChatGPT existed. The model card cautions against treating it as a reliable ChatGPT detector. The preprint does not name the exact checkpoint or report Reddit validation, a confusion matrix, calibration, or sensitivity to misclassification. Figure 4 shows replies labeled ChatGPT aligning more with parent-content slant; this is compatible with echoing or adaptation, but it does not establish that ChatGPT generated those replies or that sycophancy is the causal mechanism.

On affect, hostility declines in all four groups: -0.0042 and -0.0016 for active and inactive liberals, and -0.0049 and -0.0014 for conservatives. All four toxicity estimates are negative, from -0.0017 to -0.0025, but only active liberal and active conservative coefficients receive significance marks; both inactive estimates do not. Table 6B is also mislabeled, repeating liberal-active and column number (5) four times. Emotion results are deferred to a missing supplementary table. Hostility and toxicity are indicators of textual civility, not direct measures of animus toward the opposing party, the standard construct of affective polarization.

The prior-year difference-in-differences comparison improves on a simple before-after contrast, but the published equation contains author rather than date fixed effects. Because exposure changes for everyone at one time, common temporal shocks and serial dependence remain; clustering only by author may not capture this uncertainty. The cited placebos rule out some alternative dates, not every co-occurring event. There is no preregistration. The official record identifies a v1 preprint and reports no peer-review status.

Public reproducibility is low. The PDF repeatedly cites an SI Appendix for the dictionary, methods, robustness checks, figures, and Tables S1-S7, but arXiv serves only the 19-page main PDF; even the source endpoint returns the same PDF. No code, data, dictionary, checkpoint, perplexity model, derived outputs, or scripts were located. This review therefore preserves reported coefficients but does not present them as independently reproduced.

The faithful conclusion is narrower than the abstract: in an observational comparison of early r/politics activity, measured language from liberal and conservative groups moved slightly away from zero after launch, while hostility and some toxicity measures declined. This opens a valuable question about whether generative assistants can separate topical extremity from civil tone. It does not demonstrate individual ChatGPT use, causality, sycophancy as the mechanism, changed beliefs or voting, a general decline in affective polarization, or that AI improves democratic discourse. The evidence is suggestive and needs a validated detector, complete supplement, public data/code, and stronger causal identification.

Español

El preprint estudia si el discurso político de r/politics cambió alrededor del lanzamiento público de ChatGPT el 30 de noviembre de 2022. Distingue polarización ideológica, alejamiento de un punto neutral en el lenguaje, de polarización afectiva, hostilidad y toxicidad, y propone un resultado doble: después del lanzamiento, el lenguaje de autores inicialmente liberales y conservadores se alejó modestamente del centro, mientras bajaron sobre todo las puntuaciones de hostilidad. El interés del trabajo está en esa separación entre contenido ideológico y tono; su principal límite es que observa una fecha y proxies lingüísticos, no el uso real de ChatGPT por cada autor o comentario.

El conjunto declarado reúne 6.882.091 posts y comentarios de 334.002 autores. Incluye tres meses antes y después del lanzamiento y compara ese intervalo con los mismos meses un año antes mediante diferencias en diferencias. Para evitar que la entrada de usuarios nuevos determine el resultado, retiene personas que habían comentado al menos una vez entre junio y diciembre de 2021. Las regresiones principales usan observaciones de comentario, efectos fijos de autor y errores agrupados por autor; también se presentan agregados autor-día y se citan análisis autor-mes. El PDF muestra un event study de seis semanas a cada lado y afirma pruebas placebo desplazando la fecha, pero los resultados completos están en un suplemento no disponible.

La orientación política se estima con un diccionario bag-of-words construido a partir del Congressional Record de 2021. Cada comentario recibe un score entre -1 y 1: negativo se interpreta como liberal, positivo como conservador y cero como neutral. Un 59,4% de autores queda neutral, 15,7% liberal y 24,9% conservador; por comentarios, las proporciones son 17,9%, 31,6% y 50,5%. El diccionario, sus coeficientes y su validación para lenguaje de Reddit no aparecen en el artefacto público. Por ello, el score mide uso de vocabulario asociado a congresistas y temas, no directamente creencias, identidad partidista o conducta política.

En el análisis por comentario, la interacción posterior al 30 de noviembre por periodo tratado es -0,0030 para autores liberales, -0,0003 para neutrales y +0,0026 para conservadores. En autor-día es -0,0038, -0,0004 y +0,0033. Los autores interpretan los signos opuestos como mayor polarización y afirman que el cambio desplaza un comentario mediano hacia el 30% más extremo, equivalencia remitida a una figura suplementaria que no puede comprobarse. Los grupos más cercanos al centro muestran desplazamientos pequeños o no significativos. Estos resultados documentan una asociación temporal bajo la métrica del artículo; no aíslan por sí solos la causa ChatGPT frente a noticias, composición, moderación, cambios de plataforma u otros shocks coincidentes.

Para estudiar quién impulsa el cambio, el artículo llama activos al 10% superior por número de comentarios en el periodo de selección, 20 o más, e inactivos a todos los demás. Tras el lanzamiento, el grupo denominado inactivo escribe aproximadamente 2,9-3,1 palabras más por comentario, reduce más su perplejidad logarítmica y baja cerca de 0,01 su Human Score. Su cambio de slant también es mayor: -0,0082 entre liberales y +0,0072 entre conservadores, frente a -0,0022 y +0,0019 en activos. Son diferencias lingüísticas consistentes con asistencia generativa, pero longitud, perplejidad y un clasificador no observan qué herramienta se usó. Además, llamar inactivo a cerca del 90% de la distribución agrupa conductas muy heterogéneas.

El mecanismo de “sycophancy” depende de clasificar comentarios individuales como humanos o ChatGPT. El paper denomina al Human Score detector de ChatGPT de OpenAI y considera ChatGPT todo score humano inferior al 30%. Sin embargo, su referencia 22 es Solaiman et al. (2019): el detector RoBERTa de salidas GPT-2, entrenado para distinguir WebText de texto producido por GPT-2 1.5B antes de que existiera ChatGPT. La ficha del modelo advierte que no debe tratarse como detector fiable de ChatGPT. El preprint no identifica el checkpoint exacto ni publica validación en Reddit, matriz de confusión, calibración o sensibilidad al error de clasificación. Figura 4 muestra que las respuestas etiquetadas como ChatGPT se alinean más con el slant del contenido padre; eso es compatible con eco o adaptación, pero no demuestra que ChatGPT generara esas respuestas ni que la sycophancy sea el mecanismo causal.

En la dimensión afectiva, la hostilidad baja en los cuatro grupos: -0,0042 y -0,0016 para liberales activos e inactivos y -0,0049 y -0,0014 para conservadores. Las cuatro estimaciones de toxicidad son negativas, entre -0,0017 y -0,0025, pero solo las de activos liberales y conservadores llevan marca de significancia; las dos de inactivos no. La Tabla 6B además está mal rotulada: repite “liberal-active” y el número de columna (5) cuatro veces. El texto remite las emociones a una tabla suplementaria ausente. Hostilidad y toxicidad son indicadores de civismo textual, no una medida directa de animadversión hacia el partido contrario, que es el constructo habitual de polarización afectiva.

El diseño de diferencias en diferencias mejora una simple comparación antes-después al usar el mismo calendario del año previo, pero la ecuación publicada incluye efectos fijos de autor y no efectos fijos de fecha. Como toda la exposición cambia en el mismo momento, persisten shocks temporales comunes y dependencia serial; agrupar solo por autor puede no capturar esa incertidumbre. Los placebos citados descartan algunas fechas alternativas, no todos los eventos concurrentes. Tampoco hay preregistro. El preprint es una v1 sin estado de revisión por pares en el registro oficial.

La reproducibilidad es baja en el estado público auditado. El PDF remite reiteradamente a un SI Appendix para el diccionario, métodos, robustez, figuras y Tablas S1-S7, pero arXiv solo entrega el PDF principal de 19 páginas: incluso el endpoint de fuentes devuelve ese mismo PDF. No se localizan código, datos, diccionario, checkpoint, score de perplejidad, salidas derivadas o scripts. Por tanto, esta ficha conserva los coeficientes reportados pero no los presenta como reproducidos.

La conclusión fiel es más estrecha que el abstract: en una comparación observacional de los primeros meses de r/politics, el lenguaje medido de grupos liberales y conservadores se alejó ligeramente del cero después del lanzamiento, mientras disminuyeron medidas de hostilidad y parte de las de toxicidad. El patrón abre una pregunta valiosa sobre si los asistentes generativos pueden separar extremidad temática y tono civil. No demuestra uso individual de ChatGPT, causalidad, sycophancy como mecanismo, cambios en creencias o voto, reducción general de polarización afectiva ni que la IA mejore el discurso democrático. Es evidencia sugerente que requiere detector validado, suplemento completo, datos/código y una estrategia causal más fuerte.

Research question

How did the ideological slant and the hostile or toxic tone of r/politics change around the launch of ChatGPT, which activity groups concentrated the changes, and do responses classified as AI-generated align more with the parent content?

Method

Differences in differences between three months before/after 30-11-2022 and the same months one year earlier, with author fixed effects and errors clustered by author. The study applies a Congressional Record 2021 dictionary, length, perplexity, Human Score of a cited GPT-2 detector, and not fully documented measures of hostility, toxicity, and emotion. The audit read and rendered the 19 pages, checked the arXiv repository, the absence of the supplement, and the identity of the cited detector.

Sample: Authors with at least one comment between 01-06-2021 and 01-12-2021; observations during three months before and after 30-11 in a treated period and the same calendar one year earlier. Active are the top 10% by activity, with a threshold of 20 comments; the remainder are termed inactive.

Findings

  • The DID per comment reports -0.0030 in liberal slant and +0.0026 in conservative; in author-day, -0.0038 and +0.0033.
  • Neutrals and centrist groups change much less, and several centrist coefficients are not significant.
  • The group below the activity threshold shows larger changes in length, perplexity, Human Score, and slant.
  • Figure 4 shows more alignment with parent content in responses classified as ChatGPT than in those classified as human.
  • Hostility decreases in all four ideology-activity groups.
  • Toxicity has four negative coefficients, but only two, both from active, are marked as significant.
  • The pattern is consistent with a separation between ideological slant and textual civility under the metrics used.
  • No figure could be reproduced without data, code, dictionary, or public supplement.

Limitations

  • No individual use of ChatGPT or actual authorship of any comment is observed.
  • The cited detector was trained for GPT-2 1.5B in 2019, not validated for ChatGPT.
  • No validation on Reddit, confusion matrix, calibration, or analysis of the 30% threshold is published.
  • The exact checkpoint, perplexity model, prompts, ChatGPT versions, or human editing are not identified.
  • The dictionary and slant coefficients are not available or validated on Reddit.
  • Bag-of-words can conflate topic, quotations, and vocabulary with ideology or belief.
  • The published equation has author fixed effects, not date fixed effects, despite a common temporal exposure.
  • Placebos and full robustness are in an absent SI Appendix.
  • Clustering errors only by author may omit common shocks and temporal dependence.
  • The inactive label comprises approximately 90% below the main cutoff.
  • Figure 4 does not publish cell sizes or an exact table of estimates in the available artifact.
  • Table 6B repeats erroneous column headers and numbers.
  • Two of four toxicity changes lack a significance marker.
  • Hostility/toxicity do not directly measure animadversion toward the political outgroup.
  • There is no public code, data, scripts, preregistration, dictionary, or supplement.
  • It is a v1 with no indicated peer review and covers only r/politics in English during the first months.

What the study does not establish

  • It does not demonstrate that specific authors used ChatGPT.
  • It does not validate the GPT-2 detector as a ChatGPT detector on Reddit.
  • It does not demonstrate that ChatGPT caused the aggregate changes.
  • It does not prove algorithmic sycophancy as a causal mechanism.
  • It does not rule out all concurrent political, compositional, moderation, or platform shocks.
  • It does not demonstrate a significant decline in toxicity across all groups.
  • It does not directly measure affective polarization toward the opposing party.
  • It does not show changes in private beliefs, voting, or political identity.
  • It does not generalize to other platforms, languages, periods, models, or current versions.
  • It does not demonstrate that AI improves democratic discourse or that it substitutes regulation.

Traceability

Scope: Full text

Version: arXiv:2601.20238v1, submitted 2026-01-28; 19-page main artifact without the cited SI Appendix

Consulted source: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20238

Review: Codex 19-page visual, official-arXiv, source-endpoint, missing-supplement, GPT-2-detector identity, DID, causal-attribution, table-consistency and reproducibility audit, 2026-07-16

Approval: Codex fidelity pass, 2026-07-16

English translation: approved, 2026-07-18

Models evaluated

  • ChatGPT (uso individual inferido, no observado)
  • Detector RoBERTa de salidas GPT-2 de OpenAI (checkpoint exacto no especificado)
  • Modelo de perplejidad no especificado

Instruments and metrics

  • Diccionario bag-of-words de slant político basado en Congressional Record 2021
  • Regresiones difference-in-differences con efectos fijos de autor
  • Human Score y umbral 30% para clasificar humano frente a ChatGPT
  • Longitud de comentario y log de perplejidad
  • Scores de hostilidad, toxicidad, anger, fear, sadness y surprise no detallados en el PDF principal

Data used

  • 6.882.091 posts/comentarios de r/politics
  • 334.002 autores seleccionados con actividad previa
  • Congressional Record de 2021
  • Ventanas septiembre-marzo 2021-2022 y 2022-2023

Evidence and location

  • Metadata, design, results, tables, discussion, and stated limitations: arXiv:2601.20238v1, 19 pages
  • Identity, training, and out-of-scope use of the cited detector: huggingface.co/openai-community/roberta-base-openai-detector
  • Historical limits of AI text classifiers: openai.com/index/new-ai-classifier-for-indicating-ai-written-text/
  • Audit of supplement, detector, causality, tables, and reproducibility: reports/verification/article-237-reddit-did-gpt2-detector-missing-supplement-and-causal-attribution-audit.json